Pecan Tariffs: What U.S. Buyers Need to Know About the Current Market Chaos

If you’re sourcing pecans in the U.S. right now, you’re probably feeling the market’s uncertainty due to the recent tariff rollercoaster. With recent tariff proposals affecting key trading partners like Mexico, Canada, and China, the pecan industry is experiencing significant uncertainty.

Here’s what’s happening and how it might affect your buying decisions:

A Quick Breakdown of the Tariff Situation:

• On March 4, 2025, blanket tariffs went into effect, impacting trade with Mexico and Canada and doubling tariffs for Chinese imports from 10% to 20%.
• By March 10, China retaliated, slapping an additional 10% tariff specifically on U.S. pecans.
• Fortunately, after negotiations with Mexico and Canada, the U.S. suspended its 25% tariffs under the USMCA (U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement), covering pecans. But other tariffs remain set for April.

Why Does This Matter for the U.S. Spice and Nut Industry?

The spice and nut markets are sensitive to price fluctuations—pecans are no exception. Mexico is essential for U.S. pecan supply, contributing about 69% of total U.S. imports. Any additional costs will inevitably trickle down to your purchasing price.

According to the USDA Economic Research Service, exports to critical markets have already seen significant hits:

• 82% decrease in exports to China (down to just $10.746 million in 2024/25 compared to last year).
• 75% decrease to Mexico ($1.115 million), with Canada relatively stable at a 1% decrease ($12.297 million).

How Are Prices Likely to React?

With tariffs potentially making Mexican pecans 25% more expensive, U.S. buyers could see higher domestic prices as these costs are passed along. As pecans get pricier, consumers might start switching to alternatives like almonds or walnuts—directly impacting sales volumes.

Short-Term Benefits, Long-Term Challenges:

Some analysts suggest that reduced Mexican imports might relieve initial price pressure, giving U.S. pecan growers a temporary advantage. However, this short-term benefit could backfire if the U.S. crop can’t meet domestic demand or compete internationally. Mexican exporters are already looking to diversify their market, reducing their dependence on the U.S. and potentially limiting your sourcing options.

What’s Next for Buyers?

• Secure your contracts early: Supply is limited, and pecan halves especially are becoming harder to source. Prices are expected to rise in Q3 and Q4.
• Monitor the situation closely: Tariff policies have proven volatile. Staying updated will help you adapt quickly.
• Consider alternatives: Having backup plans like almonds or walnuts ready might be wise to mitigate risk.

Staying proactive and flexible will be crucial for keeping your supply chain secure and costs manageable.