The Rising Cost of Cocoa Powder: What’s Driving Prices Up in 2025?

A worker is seen pouring freshly harvested cacao pods from a blue plastic crate onto a large pile. The cacao pods vary in color, including shades of yellow, green, and brown, indicating different ripeness stages. The scene is set outdoors with natural sunlight casting warm tones on the pods. In the foreground, the logo of "Majestic Spice" is visible, suggesting a connection to the spice or food industry.
17Feb

The Rising Cost of Cocoa Powder: What’s Driving Prices Up in 2025?

Cocoa powder prices have been soaring, leaving businesses and consumers wondering why their favorite chocolate products are getting more expensive. The global cocoa market has been hit with a series of challenges, including extreme weather, crop diseases, and supply chain disruptions. As we navigate 2025, it’s clear that these issues aren’t going away anytime soon. Let’s talk about what’s happening and what we can expect for the rest of the year.

A Price Surge Like Never Before

In December 2024, cocoa prices reached an all-time high, surpassing $12,000 per metric ton—a staggering increase from around $2,000 in 2022. This historic surge is shaking up the chocolate industry, with major companies passing costs onto consumers. In Australia, for example, the price of a standard chocolate bar has now climbed to $7, forcing consumers to rethink their sweet tooth habits.

Key Factors Behind the Price Increase

1. Extreme Weather and Climate Change

West Africa, which supplies about 70% of the world’s cocoa, has faced devastating weather patterns in recent years. Excessive rainfall and rising temperatures have created poor growing conditions, leading to lower yields. With global temperatures continuing to fluctuate unpredictably, cocoa farmers are struggling to produce enough beans to meet demand.

2. The Impact of Crop Diseases

In addition to weather issues, cocoa crops in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana—the world’s top producers—are being hit hard by Cacao Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV). This disease significantly reduces the lifespan of cocoa trees and has been spreading rapidly across plantations, further limiting supply.

3. Supply Chain Bottlenecks

Underinvestment in cocoa farms, political instability, and logistical challenges have worsened the situation. Farmers are dealing with aging plantations, while stricter environmental regulations, such as the EU Deforestation Regulation, are complicating exports. These factors collectively contribute to ongoing supply constraints.

What This Means for Businesses and Consumers

With cocoa prices at record highs, food manufacturers are forced to adapt. Companies like Cadbury and Lindt have already raised prices to offset costs, and some are considering reducing product sizes (shrinkflation) or modifying their recipes to use less cocoa.

For consumers, this means higher prices at checkout. In some regions, chocolate lovers are already seeing price hikes of 20–40% on their favorite treats. Some may turn to more affordable alternatives, while others might cut back on their purchases altogether.

What’s Next for Cocoa in 2025?

Industry experts predict that cocoa prices will remain high for the rest of 2025, unless there is a drastic improvement in weather conditions or a breakthrough in controlling CSSV. Even if supply rebounds slightly, structural issues such as outdated farming practices and ongoing regulatory hurdles may keep prices elevated for the foreseeable future.

While some companies may seek alternative ingredients or cocoa substitutes, the reality is that the global chocolate industry is in for a challenging year. If you’re in the food business, it’s time to prepare for continued volatility in cocoa pricing.

References

  • AP News. (2024, December). Chocolate love has its price on Valentine’s Day as cocoa costs make hearts shudder, not flutter. Retrieved from https://apnews.com/article/116b285ccb6542480c1c887f38a6b16a
  • Food Navigator. (2025, February 6). Cocoa prices hit record high – What does this mean for food and beverage? Retrieved from https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2025/02/06/cocoa-prices-hit-record-high-what-does-this-mean-for-food-and-beverage/
  • Food Navigator-USA. (2025, February 6). Cocoa powder and cocoa fat show promise amid cocoa price hikes. Retrieved from https://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Article/2025/02/06/cocoa-powder-and-cocoa-fat-show-promise-amid-cocoa-price-hikes/
  • J.P. Morgan. (2025). Cocoa market on the brink of big price surge. Retrieved from https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/cocoa-prices
  • News.com.au. (2025). ‘What a joke’: Shock price of Easter eggs at Coles and Woolies. Retrieved from https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/food/what-a-joke-shock-price-of-easter-eggs-at-coles-and-woolies/news-story/e204bfdd888cc090d06e788730fa6382
  • The Guardian. (2025, February 15). Extreme weather likely to cause further food price volatility, analysts say. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/15/extreme-weather-likely-to-cause-further-food-price-volatility-analysts-say
  • Food Business News. (2025). Retail chocolate prices expected to surge in 2025. Retrieved from https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/26847-retail-chocolate-prices-expected-to-surge-in-2025

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